Despite gains in higher education enrollment in the 2023-24 academic year–the first increase following years of enrollment declines–an impending drop in the country’s college-going population threatens the prospect of future enrollment growth and stability. These trends in enrollment make it more important than ever for colleges and universities to retain and graduate those students already enrolled. To that end, colleges and universities need timely and data-driven insights on the drivers of attrition and the policies that might impede or support progress to better meet the needs of students and increase student success and ultimately retention.

Over the past few years, Ithaka S+R has been working with institutions in a variety of capacities to address these challenges. For instance, in 2022, Ithaka S+R partnered with a private not-for-profit, four-year institution to undertake an internal review of its programming, policies, and practices to identify and remove the main barriers to retention and increase its six-year graduation rate from 60 percent to 70 percent. Building on this work, Ithaka S+R recently wrapped up similar engagements with two public, four-year institutions through its leadership of the American Talent Initiative (ATI), an alliance of high-graduation-rate schools committed to expanding access and opportunity for low- and moderate-income students that is supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies and co-managed by Ithaka S+R and the Aspen Institute.

As part of these engagements, Ithaka S+R analyzed each institution’s student data to uncover barriers to retention and present recommendations for addressing them. Through a thorough and systematic analysis of student data on undergraduates enrolled at each institution over at least the past ten years, Ithaka S+R aimed to help each institution uncover answers to the following research questions:

  • Which student characteristics and behaviors are most predictive of attrition?
  • Of students who do not persist, which distinct subgroups of students emerge based on similar characteristics and behaviors?
  • Given the main drivers of attrition among the student subgroups most affected, what strategies can institutions employ to address the most significant obstacles to retention?

In addition to examining the academic and financial characteristics that correlated with persistence, we sought to segment the population of students who did not persist into distinct subgroups to which institutions might be able to offer targeted support services. To do this, we employed a technique called cluster analysis to group together non-persisting students based on shared characteristics.

At one institution, three distinct clusters of students who did not persist into their second year emerged:

  • Poor performers (students with low GPAs and a high likelihood of being in poor academic standing)
  • Low-income students (students with a low Expected Family Contribution (EFC), averaging $2,100 or less, and most of whom received a Pell Grant)
  • High-income, high performers (students in good academic standing and not facing financial difficulty with a relatively high likelihood of transferring to and ultimately graduating from another institution)

At another institution, which served a greater proportion of out-of-state students in its student body, the same three distinct clusters emerged as well as a fourth cluster:

  • Out-of-state students (who also tended to have high unmet financial need)

Considering that the two largest drivers of attrition were poor academic performance and financial need, it came as no surprise that poor performers and low-income students emerged as distinct clusters. These findings suggest that institutions would generally benefit from offering certain targeted supports, which we detailed in a confidential report of findings to institutional leaders. The recommendations were informed in part by ongoing conversations, meetings, and presentations with key stakeholders to ensure their feasibility and practicality.

For instance, we recommended targeting academic support services to academically at-risk students earlier in their first semester. At both institutions, first-year GPA was the strongest predictor of persistence, and students with poor academic performance represented a substantial proportion of the students who did not persist to their second year. These students were not only unlikely to persist, but also unlikely to ever graduate from that institution or any other within six years. A low first-semester GPA puts a student at high risk for failure to meet good academic standing requirements and can lead to academic consequences such as academic probation and/or dismissal—consequences which can also make them ineligible for financial aid. It is crucial to incentivize and/or require students to take advantage of academic support services as early as their first semester and to regularly evaluate the efficacy of services and resources to ensure they are effectively being used.

As institutions continue to grapple with enrollment challenges and what it means to better meet the needs of students, uncovering barriers to retention and developing strategies to address them is a service that many other institutions would benefit from. Ithaka S+R is ready to help through student data collection, analysis, and strategic advising. If you’re interested in learning more, please contact Daniel Rossman (daniel.rossman@ithaka.org).